SEV1 — Wargame Scenarios

Failure Scenario Simulations

Helios Digital • Gold Issuance Facility

Format

Each scenario includes: trigger/assumptions, system impact, T+0 / T+24h / T+72h / T+7d actions, communications plan (factual, no promises), and post-mortem requirements.

Scenario A:40% Gold Price Crash in 72 Hours

Trigger

Spot gold drops 40% over 72 hours. Market panics. Token trades at discount as liquidity dries.

Primary Risks

  • Redemption spike
  • LP drain and slippage
  • Narrative damage ("backing failed")
  • Spread widening between spot and token

T+0 (first 2 hours)

  • Halt issuance (new activations) to prevent imbalance.
  • Publish "Reserve Status" update: supply, backing method, last merkle root time.
  • Treasury begins hourly reconciliation.
  • Exchange lead monitors pools and spreads.

T+24h

  • Enable redemption throttle per published policy (no special treatment).
  • Publish redemption queue statistics and next update time.
  • If stablecoin conversions are used, implement bounded pricing windows (avoid exploit via stale prices).
  • Increase comms cadence: 2 updates/day.

T+72h

  • If discount persists, highlight redemption arbitrage path (burn → redeem) with step-by-step verification.
  • Maintain PoR snapshots on schedule.
  • If liquidity is chaotic, reduce LP incentives, prioritize redemption integrity.

T+7d

  • Full post-mortem: causes, response effectiveness, policy updates.
  • Consider additional liquidity buffers only if disclosed and policy-backed.

Communications

Use plain language: "Gold price moved sharply. Helios remains redeemable per policy. Here is the proof link and current queue time." No "we guarantee" statements.

Scenario B:Vault Partner Insolvency / Operations Frozen

Trigger

Vault partner enters insolvency or freezes operations.

Primary Risks

  • Redemption not fulfillable
  • Proof-of-reserve question
  • Legal claims priority

T+0

  • Immediate halt issuance.
  • Freeze any messaging that implies immediate redemption.
  • Legal lead initiates contract and insurance review.
  • Custody ops requests written confirmation of holdings status.

T+24h

  • Publish a factual notice: "Vault partner has operational disruption. Issuance halted. Redemption processing paused/throttled per policy pending confirmation."
  • Begin contingency: identify alternate custodians, logistics, re-vaulting process.

T+72h

  • If gold is confirmed allocated and transferable: execute migration plan.
  • If not confirmed: escalate insurance claims / legal action.
  • Update PoR statement to reflect "verification pending" and publish last known merkle root.

T+7d

  • Transition custody, refresh audits, update disclosures, and re-open issuance only after stable.

Scenario C:Smart Contract Mint Bug Discovered (Over-mint possible)

Trigger

An audit, bug bounty, or incident detects mint vulnerability.

Primary Risks

  • Unbacked supply
  • Exchange delisting risk
  • Loss of confidence

T+0

  • Pause all mint-related functions (issuance contract pause).
  • Snapshot chain state: balances, supply, backing positions.
  • Begin coordinated disclosure with counsel (avoid incomplete claims).
  • Notify key partners privately (custody, major venues).

T+24h

  • Patch plan: fix contract, define migration if needed.
  • Publish short statement: "Potential mint vulnerability identified. Issuance paused. No evidence of exploitation (or state clearly if unknown). Next update time."

T+72h

  • Deploy fix / migration contract if required.
  • Provide verifiable accounting: old supply vs new supply, mapping and proofs.

T+7d

  • Post-mortem + upgraded change control.
  • Consider formal verification / expanded audits.

Scenario D:Stablecoin Depeg Event

Trigger

Primary stablecoin loses peg materially.

Primary Risks

  • Conversions misprice
  • Treasury impairment
  • On/off-ramp disruption

T+0

  • Halt stablecoin conversions.
  • Move to alternate regulated stablecoin where possible (policy-driven).
  • Publish "Conversion temporarily paused" notice.

T+24h

  • Treasury rebalancing per policy.
  • Re-open conversions only with bounded pricing and multiple references.

T+72h

  • Document losses (if any) and publish updated reserve ratio.

T+7d

  • Update treasury policy and disclosures.

Scenario E:Binance (or major CEX) Demands Freeze / Clawback Capability

Trigger

Exchange states listing requires freeze/clawback hooks.

Decision Tree

  1. Is freeze/clawback allowed by your disclosed policy?
  2. Is it jurisdictionally required for target markets?
  3. What is the minimum viable control surface?

T+0

  • Legal lead drafts "control policy addendum" and acceptable boundaries.
  • Engineering proposes implementation with: role separation, immutable logs, narrow scope (e.g., only stolen funds with documented request), public transparency report.

T+24h

  • Decide: implement or decline listing.
  • If implementing: publish policy and effective date before enabling.

T+72h

  • Ship controlled module with timelock and audit trail.
  • Notify market clearly: what can happen, when, and how to appeal.

T+7d

  • Publish first transparency report template (even if empty).

Mandatory Post-Mortem Template (for every SEV1/SEV2)

  • Timeline
  • Root cause
  • Customer impact (quantified)
  • Corrective actions (technical + operational)
  • Policy/doc updates
  • Prevent recurrence checks