Failure Scenario Simulations
Helios Digital • Gold Issuance Facility
Format
Each scenario includes: trigger/assumptions, system impact, T+0 / T+24h / T+72h / T+7d actions, communications plan (factual, no promises), and post-mortem requirements.
Scenario A:40% Gold Price Crash in 72 Hours
Trigger
Spot gold drops 40% over 72 hours. Market panics. Token trades at discount as liquidity dries.
Primary Risks
- •Redemption spike
- •LP drain and slippage
- •Narrative damage ("backing failed")
- •Spread widening between spot and token
T+0 (first 2 hours)
- ‣Halt issuance (new activations) to prevent imbalance.
- ‣Publish "Reserve Status" update: supply, backing method, last merkle root time.
- ‣Treasury begins hourly reconciliation.
- ‣Exchange lead monitors pools and spreads.
T+24h
- ‣Enable redemption throttle per published policy (no special treatment).
- ‣Publish redemption queue statistics and next update time.
- ‣If stablecoin conversions are used, implement bounded pricing windows (avoid exploit via stale prices).
- ‣Increase comms cadence: 2 updates/day.
T+72h
- ‣If discount persists, highlight redemption arbitrage path (burn → redeem) with step-by-step verification.
- ‣Maintain PoR snapshots on schedule.
- ‣If liquidity is chaotic, reduce LP incentives, prioritize redemption integrity.
T+7d
- ‣Full post-mortem: causes, response effectiveness, policy updates.
- ‣Consider additional liquidity buffers only if disclosed and policy-backed.
Communications
Use plain language: "Gold price moved sharply. Helios remains redeemable per policy. Here is the proof link and current queue time." No "we guarantee" statements.
Scenario B:Vault Partner Insolvency / Operations Frozen
Trigger
Vault partner enters insolvency or freezes operations.
Primary Risks
- •Redemption not fulfillable
- •Proof-of-reserve question
- •Legal claims priority
T+0
- ‣Immediate halt issuance.
- ‣Freeze any messaging that implies immediate redemption.
- ‣Legal lead initiates contract and insurance review.
- ‣Custody ops requests written confirmation of holdings status.
T+24h
- ‣Publish a factual notice: "Vault partner has operational disruption. Issuance halted. Redemption processing paused/throttled per policy pending confirmation."
- ‣Begin contingency: identify alternate custodians, logistics, re-vaulting process.
T+72h
- ‣If gold is confirmed allocated and transferable: execute migration plan.
- ‣If not confirmed: escalate insurance claims / legal action.
- ‣Update PoR statement to reflect "verification pending" and publish last known merkle root.
T+7d
- ‣Transition custody, refresh audits, update disclosures, and re-open issuance only after stable.
Scenario C:Smart Contract Mint Bug Discovered (Over-mint possible)
Trigger
An audit, bug bounty, or incident detects mint vulnerability.
Primary Risks
- •Unbacked supply
- •Exchange delisting risk
- •Loss of confidence
T+0
- ‣Pause all mint-related functions (issuance contract pause).
- ‣Snapshot chain state: balances, supply, backing positions.
- ‣Begin coordinated disclosure with counsel (avoid incomplete claims).
- ‣Notify key partners privately (custody, major venues).
T+24h
- ‣Patch plan: fix contract, define migration if needed.
- ‣Publish short statement: "Potential mint vulnerability identified. Issuance paused. No evidence of exploitation (or state clearly if unknown). Next update time."
T+72h
- ‣Deploy fix / migration contract if required.
- ‣Provide verifiable accounting: old supply vs new supply, mapping and proofs.
T+7d
- ‣Post-mortem + upgraded change control.
- ‣Consider formal verification / expanded audits.
Scenario D:Stablecoin Depeg Event
Trigger
Primary stablecoin loses peg materially.
Primary Risks
- •Conversions misprice
- •Treasury impairment
- •On/off-ramp disruption
T+0
- ‣Halt stablecoin conversions.
- ‣Move to alternate regulated stablecoin where possible (policy-driven).
- ‣Publish "Conversion temporarily paused" notice.
T+24h
- ‣Treasury rebalancing per policy.
- ‣Re-open conversions only with bounded pricing and multiple references.
T+72h
- ‣Document losses (if any) and publish updated reserve ratio.
T+7d
- ‣Update treasury policy and disclosures.
Scenario E:Binance (or major CEX) Demands Freeze / Clawback Capability
Trigger
Exchange states listing requires freeze/clawback hooks.
Decision Tree
- Is freeze/clawback allowed by your disclosed policy?
- Is it jurisdictionally required for target markets?
- What is the minimum viable control surface?
T+0
- ‣Legal lead drafts "control policy addendum" and acceptable boundaries.
- ‣Engineering proposes implementation with: role separation, immutable logs, narrow scope (e.g., only stolen funds with documented request), public transparency report.
T+24h
- ‣Decide: implement or decline listing.
- ‣If implementing: publish policy and effective date before enabling.
T+72h
- ‣Ship controlled module with timelock and audit trail.
- ‣Notify market clearly: what can happen, when, and how to appeal.
T+7d
- ‣Publish first transparency report template (even if empty).
Mandatory Post-Mortem Template (for every SEV1/SEV2)
- •Timeline
- •Root cause
- •Customer impact (quantified)
- •Corrective actions (technical + operational)
- •Policy/doc updates
- •Prevent recurrence checks